We have double digit gains for front month corn futures following the low Grain Stocks numbers. USDA saw 1.995 bbu of corn stocks on Sept 1. That was well below the average trade estimate of 2.266 bbu. The largest year to year changes came via the “I” states which were down 40.3% in IL, 24% in IN, and 5% in Iowa. They dropped their 3Q use by 205 million bushels from the number they published in June, suggesting they miscalculated feed & residual by about that much during the pandemic shutdown. The ethanol number could also potentially be revised. The 2019/20 production was EIA’s weekly report showed reduced ethanol production and reduced stocks. Ethanol plants averaged 881,000 barrels per day produced on the week ending 9/25, which was down 25k bpd wk/wk. Stocks fell 306,000 barrels to 19.691 million. That is the 4th consecutive week with less than 20 million barrels on hand, and the lowest stockpile since December 2016.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month bean futures are up 30+ cents through midday after the Grain Stocks report. Soy products are also rallying on the borrowed strength. Meal futures are up more than $10/ton and bean oil futures are 30 to 40 points higher. CME reported 54 meal deliveries against October futures on 9/29. There were no soy oil deliveries issued against October. USDA’s mandatory reporting system announced a 215k MT sale of soybeans to unknown. Soybean stocks were reported at 523 mbu on September 1. That is down 386 mbu yr/yr and well below the estimated 578 from the trade. September bean stocks in Illinois were 64.7% lower yr/yr with 66 mbu on hand at the beginning of the month. Iowa soybean stocks were 36% lower yr/yr.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday wheat trading up by double digits following the quarterly reports. Wheat stocks were 2.159 bbu on September 1st, which was tighter than the average pre report estimate and 17.3% tighter yr/yr. National wheat production was 1.826 bbu, down 12 mbu from the August estimate. Hard red winter wheat production is 659 vs. the trade guess of 693 mbu. SRW is 266 compared to the expected 276 and white was 233 mbu, 7 above the trade average guess. 2020/21 Other Spring wheat production was 586 mbu, 9 million above pre-report expectations. The Russian Ag Ministry raised their wheat production estimate from 75 MMT to 82 MMT.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are giving back morning gains with midday losses of 5 to 40 cents. Feeder cattle futures are dropping triple digits so far trading near $2 lower at midday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $142.36 on 9/28, down 25 cents. Sales from this morning’s FCE auction saw action for each lot listed, three feedlots passed on $104 offers and 358 head were sold at $106. Cash cattle sales activity for the week has been minimal, but USDA reported a few higher graded cattle sold at $106. FCE’s online cattle auction has 901 head listed so far for sale. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher in the AM report. Choice boxes were $1.48 higher to $218.64 cwt. Select boxes were up 94 cents to $207.93. USDA’s estimate for Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter is 120,000 head. WTD slaughter is 238k, which is down 3k head from last week but 4k head above the same week last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are rallying at midday with gains of as much as $1.30 in the front months. The CME Lean Hog Index was $75.91 on 9/28 up another 49 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was another 2 cents lower this morning to $63.90. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $91.20 cwt. down by 55 cents. Federally inspected hog slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 485,000 head. The week’s slaughter is at 974k head which matches last year’s pace.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are higher so far with 46 to 57 point gains. Chinese cotton futures on the ZXE were 12,750 yuan (~ 84.98 cents/lb) for Jan. Carry to March on the ZXE is ~1.27 cents, as March futures closed at 12,935 yuan on 9/29. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report noted 711 bales sold on 9/29 for an average price of 59.68 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was 71.15 c/lb on Sept 29, that was 15 points weaker. The AWP for cotton is 50.45 cents/lb, the week’s LDP is 1.55 cents. Both will be updated after the close tomorrow.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management